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Published on KnoxViews (http://southknoxbubba.net)

Primary fatigue

By R. Neal
Created May 21 2008 - 11:11

Not much talk about yesterday's primaries. I didn't even watch any of the wobbly talking bobble heads to know what I'm supposed to think about it.

Clinton won Kentucky 65% to 30%, because, you know, they are all a bunch of uneducated white people up there. Clinton picked up 37 delegates to Obama's 14 for a net of 23.

Obama won Oregon 58% to 42%, because, you know, they are smarter and better looking than us folks down South. Obama picked up 21 delegates to Clinton's 14, for a net of 7.

So the net of the net is Clinton +16. Was it worth it? Who knows?

Clinton vows to stay on through June 3rd for the final rounds in South Dakota (15 delegates at stake) and Montana (16 delegates). Before then will be Puerto Rico (55 delegates) on June 1st.

And before any of that is the May 31st DNC Rules Committee meeting to decide what to do about Florida and Michigan. There doesn't appear to be a scenario that would end it, and in fact any outcome other than leaving the sanctions in place is more likely to favor Clinton.

The threshold, as it currently stands, is 2026 delegates. That could change to 2210 on May 31st if the sanctions are lifted.

Neither candidate currently has enough delegates, with or without sanctions, "committed" superdelegates included.

Clinton would have to get 90% or so of the remaining delegates to close, Obama would only have to get about 25%. Barring some unforeseen turn of events, it seems pretty clear what the outcome will be.

Meanwhile, each candidate accuses the other of "moving the goalposts."

Obama math says he now has the "majority of pledged delegates" so he should be the nominee, even though he doesn't have the magic number of 2026 (or 2210). So he puts the goalpost somewhere around the 15 yard line and says "close enough."

Clinton math says that she has the "majority of the popular vote" (but only if you include Florida and Michigan, except Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, but a vote for "Uncommitted" was a vote against Clinton so the votes for her count, or something like that). So she puts the goalpost out in the parking lot with the people who couldn't get tickets, throwing herself at the mercy of DNC umpires and superdelegate scalpers.

At any rate, this will likely be wrapped up by June 3, for good or ill, so we can focus on putting a Democrat in the White House. Either way it will be a historic election. Either we elect the first black president or the first female president, or we prove that we didn't learn a thing since 2004 and ask for four more years of George "Catastrophic Failure" McBush government.


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