Primary fatigue

Submitted by R. Neal on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 11:11am.

Not much talk about yesterday's primaries. I didn't even watch any of the wobbly talking bobble heads to know what I'm supposed to think about it.

Clinton won Kentucky 65% to 30%, because, you know, they are all a bunch of uneducated white people up there. Clinton picked up 37 delegates to Obama's 14 for a net of 23.

Obama won Oregon 58% to 42%, because, you know, they are smarter and better looking than us folks down South. Obama picked up 21 delegates to Clinton's 14, for a net of 7.

So the net of the net is Clinton +16. Was it worth it? Who knows?

Clinton vows to stay on through June 3rd for the final rounds in South Dakota (15 delegates at stake) and Montana (16 delegates). Before then will be Puerto Rico (55 delegates) on June 1st.

And before any of that is the May 31st DNC Rules Committee meeting to decide what to do about Florida and Michigan. There doesn't appear to be a scenario that would end it, and in fact any outcome other than leaving the sanctions in place is more likely to favor Clinton.

The threshold, as it currently stands, is 2026 delegates. That could change to 2210 on May 31st if the sanctions are lifted.

Neither candidate currently has enough delegates, with or without sanctions, "committed" superdelegates included.

Clinton would have to get 90% or so of the remaining delegates to close, Obama would only have to get about 25%. Barring some unforeseen turn of events, it seems pretty clear what the outcome will be.

Meanwhile, each candidate accuses the other of "moving the goalposts."

Obama math says he now has the "majority of pledged delegates" so he should be the nominee, even though he doesn't have the magic number of 2026 (or 2210). So he puts the goalpost somewhere around the 15 yard line and says "close enough."

Clinton math says that she has the "majority of the popular vote" (but only if you include Florida and Michigan, except Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, but a vote for "Uncommitted" was a vote against Clinton so the votes for her count, or something like that). So she puts the goalpost out in the parking lot with the people who couldn't get tickets, throwing herself at the mercy of DNC umpires and superdelegate scalpers.

At any rate, this will likely be wrapped up by June 3, for good or ill, so we can focus on putting a Democrat in the White House. Either way it will be a historic election. Either we elect the first black president or the first female president, or we prove that we didn't learn a thing since 2004 and ask for four more years of George "Catastrophic Failure" McBush government.

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One of the wonders of this
Submitted by Jack (not verified) on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 11:28am.

One of the wonders of this primary season has been the ability of the Clinton campaign -- including Hillary herself -- and their supporters to engage in some of the most patently ridiculous and bald faced lies, knowing that everyone else knows they are engaging in patently ridiculous and bald faced lies.

Chief among those lies is the fiction that Clinton leads in the popular vote.

Aside from the idiocy of the argument itself -- 1) this is a delegate race, and 2) unlike the 2000 presidential election, you can't compare the popular vote from contest to contest since each state has different rules (caucus or primaries, open, closed, or hybrid -- the way the Clinton campaign and its supporters shamelessly stretch this argument is almost embarrassing.

Clinton is "leading" the meaningless popular vote, but only if:

You count the unsanctioned contests in Florida and Michigan, where candidates were not allowed to campaign;
You give Obama zero votes in Michigan's Soviet-style election, where Clinton was essentially the only name on the ballot; and
You don't count the caucuses in Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington.
In reality, Obama leads by over half a million votes, for whatever that's worth (not much). But don't worry, the Clinton argument is so asinine, it has gotten little traction among super delegates.

In fact, it's so insulting to people's intelligence, that it's hurting the credibility of anyone stupid enough to use it.

The End is Near
Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 1:04pm.

I'm still getting into this stuff.

Ya sure I was in a funk after Penn.

But I've fully recovered & stayed up late last night.

Hillary's run a good race.

We have too.

Obama got ahead in the primaries & caucuces
that were held from 2/9 thru 3/11.

That lead has weathered loses in Pa.,Indiana,West Va
& Ky.

Now we sit here with 1,961 delegates..just 65 votes short
of the 2,026 we need to control the convention floor.

Hillary should plead her Fla/Mich case to the Rules & By-Laws committee..May 31st.

By the way Al Gore is hosting a unity
fund raiser for the DNC that night.

I end with this

Obama,including the Fla delegates,won the Dixie delegation.

It is not over but THE END IS NEAR

Which Rules?
Submitted by Sean_Braisted on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 1:05pm.

Obama,including the Fla delegates,won the Dixie delegation.

Yes, but you see, if we went by 1964 Mississippi Democratic Party rules, Hillary would've won.

The Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party
Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 1:33pm.

The Freedom Party won a '64 floor fight
vs the old Mississippi Dixiecrat Democrat Party.

Passing a rule forever banning any delegate selection process
that "deprived citizens of the right to vote by reason of
their race or color."

44 yrs later

Obama won N.C.,Va.,La.,Ala.,S.C.,Ga.
Miss.& more delegates in Tex.

We've come a long way..but we've got many miles to go.

You sure they won that floor
Submitted by Sean_Braisted on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 1:55pm.

You sure they won that floor fight?

Yes
Submitted by bill young on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 2:30pm.

The '64 Freedom Party won a compromise

Theodore White

"The chapter that had begun with HHH's advocacy of a strong civil rights plank @ the '48 convention & lead to the walk out of 4 southern states was over.The South,reduced over the years from it's one time absolute veto on Democratic nominees had now been forced to accept the best compromise it could get:a 4 year delayed sentence."

The compromise

"at the convention of 1968 & thereafter,no delegations would be seated from states where the Party process deprived citizens of the right to vote by reason of their race or color."

Heh, fair enough...perhaps
Submitted by Sean_Braisted on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 2:42pm.

Heh, fair enough...perhaps Clinton can work out a deal that gets the Florida and Michigan delegations seated in 2012 ;-)

Que?
Submitted by Sean_Braisted on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 1:03pm.

Obama math says he now has the "majority of pledged delegates" so he should be the nominee, even though he doesn't have the magic number of 2026 (or 2210).

Obviously, Obama and others (Nancy Pelosi, etc) think that the winner of the pledged delegates should be the nominee. But he hasn't declared victory, he just gave a speech thanking Iowa and the rest of America for giving him the majority of elected delegates.

And whether or not he declares himself the nominee, the GOP is sure acting as if he is (when they aren't talking up Hillary's candidacy and urging her to continue the fight).

Brian A.'s picture
At any rate, this will
Submitted by Brian A. on Wed, 2008/05/21 - 5:00pm.

At any rate, this will likely be wrapped up by June 3, for good or ill.

I hope someone has told one of the candidates this.

Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.

gonzone's picture
Bigger than the Candidates
Submitted by gonzone on Thu, 2008/05/22 - 8:07am.

I see this primary fight as bigger than just the candidates but for control of the Dem party with the old school DLC against the newer NDN/50 state/Dean group. The differences are significant and no one relinquishes power gladly or easily. I'm hoping corporate money can't buy the party again.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson

Corporate power doesn't buy
Submitted by metulj on Thu, 2008/05/22 - 8:12am.

Corporate power doesn't buy political parties. It merely rents them.

True happiness is knowing you are a hypocrite. -- Ivor Cutler

gonzone's picture
Yeah, you're correct
Submitted by gonzone on Thu, 2008/05/22 - 1:54pm.

Just like a cheap hooker or beer.

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson

???
Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2008/05/22 - 7:06pm.

R's post sums it up really well.

The fact is in the last 40+yrs candidates
have challenged front runners on the convention floor.

For the Republicans

Scranton,Rockefeller & Reagan twice.

For the Democrats

McCarthy,McGovern('68),HHH('72),Ted Kennedy,
Hart & Jackson.

There is a myth growing to compare Ted Kennedy
to Clinton.

True,Kennedy came on the spring of '80
winning in:NY,Pa,Mich & Cal.

The magic number in '80 was 1,666.

Kennedy was nowhere close with 1,239 delegates

Carter had 1,964

Game over before the convention started.

OTH,right now there are 89 elected delegates
still to be elected.

& somewhere around 208 unpledged supers.

Obama is close but this aint horseshoes.

If Clinton gets what she wants outa Fla/Mich.

magic number:2,210

Delegate count..right now..would be

Clinton:1,780+105(fla)+73(mich)=1,958

Obama:1,965+67(fla)+0(mich)=2,032

Uncommitted:55(mich)

I know,I know folks are going to say

How on earth is it fair to Obama to give
him 0 Mich delegates???

But as R & others have pointed out

By rule we do not have "pledged" delegates

We have ELECTED delegates that can vote
as they damn well please.

So how in the hell can the Rules committee

say every other delegate
is not bound by rule to any candidate

EXCEPT for the ELECTED UNCOMMITTED delegates
from Mich??

Clinton supporters must keep two things
in mind.

In 40+years

1.The candidate leading in delegates when the
gavel falls to open the convention
has never lost the nomination.

2.Nixon,in '68,is the only nominee to survive
a floor challenge & win the general election.

But keep in mind the Democrats,in '68,had a nasty
convention.

Are we in for a floor fight?

Never say never.

And if we do have good old fashion brawl

Knoxviews will give us the blow by blow

Just like back in the day

we listened to the radio

to get a round by round summary

off the AP ticker tape

When ALI was fighting for the crown.

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